Malvern Cleaners suggests you petition your MP to develop a new App to slow the spread of Coronavirus (COVID19).

The technology exists to develop an App that could help limit the spread of COVID19 by creating data points of people in close localities. The BBC created a similar App a few years ago in a pandemic simulation - with the help of Tech giants, and the pressure from our MPs and Health Service, this could be rolled out very quickly. Read more to find out how you can help.

The World Health Organisation seem to be too optimistic in my view. With news just out today of a new way of classifying the COVID19 patients, the number of infected has jumped by more than 15,000. The brave men and women on the front line of Wuhan’s health system are overstretched, exhausted, and in many cases have become infected themselves.

The virus has spread to neighbouring countries, and yesterday in the UK the first case was reported in London, with medical agencies warning that the Tube could become a hotspot for spreading the virus. Some countries, notably Indonesia, with its large number of Chinese tourists enjoying Bali, have yet to report a single case, which many medical professionals simply don’t believe is valid - and that they are going undetected. Other countries too, notably in Africa, where there aren’t systems in place to identify infections, will possibly grow out of control just as China starts to turn the tide.

With this in mind, it seems certain that it will spread to the UK in the next 2-4 weeks. By the end of February, it would be astonishing if the number of cases hadn’t increased from the so far manageable 9 confirmed.

On Tuesday night, (11th Feb), I watched the fantastic mathematician Dr. Hannah Fry present BBC Four’s ‘Contagion’ program. This was filmed in 2017 and used smart phones and mathematics to predict how a flu, not too dissimilar to COVID19, might spread throughout the country. Participants downloaded an App and the good doctor was Patient 0, going about her daily life in Hazelmere. Within the first day, she had infected 9 people who had also downloaded the App, who in turn infected others to a total of 77 (all in day one). By scaling up the simulation, the mathematics predicted that within a few months, 43 million people would be infected across the country and just under 900,000 would die.

It was a fascinating experiment, and one which I would urge everyone to watch on the I-player - it’s available for another 28 days or so. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1

The mathematical model also allowed tests to be done on the data: what would happen, for example, if everyone washed their hands several times a day? The answer: The virus spread would dramatically slow down, infecting 30 million rather than 43 million, and saving thousands of lives.

But this got me thinking: the technology in the App that the BBC developed is actually a very powerful tool in combating the spread of the real disease - not just a simulation. What I would propose is this: The likes of Google and Apple (and other smart phone manufacturers), would install an App on all their users phones via an update. This App would collect anonymous data of where you were, and where you went on your daily travels. Every time you came into 3 metres of another App user for more than 4 minutes or so (or in a high-risk area, such as shopping or cafe where you might pick up items and then return them or sit close to others), then a data point would be created, establishing a chain of contacts. Should one of these contacts report signs of infection, you would immediately be informed of where and when you were potentially exposed to this virus and therefore change your behaviour to limit your own risk to others. Apps could also send you notifications each day - perhaps to wash your hands at regular intervals, remind you not to touch your mouth, eyes, or face, or even to check on an elderly neighbour - it could even be developed into a game with points for users who did so.

This would also allow us to identify ‘super-spreaders’ in a real life situation, and if it is possible to identify these people then the virus spread would be dramatically curtailed. Identifying them in this case would mean it would be too late to halt this virus, but it would give us excellent data to examine why these people become super-spreaders and perhaps give us a way to identify them for future preparedness.

This technology is easily available - in fact, the Chinese are in the process of releasing a version of this themselves, but the problem here is that it might be too late. An App like this will be most beneficial if it is in place before the contagion starts to spread.

What about rights and privacy you might say? Well, in times of emergency these do sometimes have to be put aside: in WW2 we had identify cards, rationing, and blackouts. In the Foot and Mouth outbreak, farmers were limited as to the movement of livestock. Carrying an App on a smart phone, as most of us do everyday, is not really a big ask to the benefit it could give of slowing down the spread.

Worryingly however, the data available on COVID19 is actually worse than that used in the simulation: The R0 rate (how many people will be infected by 1 person) for COVID19 is estimated at 2-4, whereas the simulation was 1.8. The mortality for both is estimated at 2%. However, the time of someone infected, with no symptoms, and being able to spread the disease is a game changer: for COVID19 it’s 14 (perhaps 24) days. For normal flu it’s usually around a single day. This makes it much, much harder to combat. Another, currently unknown factor is how long the virus can stay alive on surfaces: flu can survive on hard surfaces for 24 hours, but COVID19, if similar to other corona-viruses, can potentially survive for over a week! A vaccine is currently estimated to be 12-18 months away (in the simulation, it was only 6 months).

So perhaps we should start a campaign? Perhaps we should petition the BBC to brush off their simulation App and update it? (It would guarantee their License Fee for the next decade at least as this would certainly be a benefit to the public!). And tweet to your MP and Public Health England and associated bodies to look at this idea. Bombard Matt Hancock with it!

As someone who has worked in the cleaning industry for some years, I know how important hygiene is to health. Forming good habits is key to combating the spread of germs - and an App, active and prescient, and not some dreary poster in a GPs surgery, would go a long way to helping remind us to to do so.

Why don’t you petition them now?

Simply copy this link into a tweet http://www.malvern-cleaners.co.uk/whats-going-on-in-malvern/2020/2/13/malvern-cleaners-suggests-you-petition-your-mp-to-develop-a-new-app-to-slow-the-spread-of-coronavirus-covid19 and send it off - and please keep it all civil!

https://twitter.com/MattHancock - Minister for Health.

https://twitter.com/CMO_England - Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer England.

https://twitter.com/hbaldwin - MP for West Worcestershire (Malvern)

https://twitter.com/JonAshworth - Shadow Minister for Health (get a bit of competition amongst them to act so the first can claim credit - it’s like dealing with children).

https://twitter.com/FryRsquared - Mathematician Hannah Fry herself - who would be well positioned to get this moving having had involvement in the App before in the BBC’s Contagion program.